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SHG My experience

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 4 August 2010, at 8:45 p.m.

In Response To: SHG My experience (Leonardo Jerkovic)

Speaks for itelf

Not to me. I gather from some comments that an XG +/i 11 or 12 luck rate is quite a bit nearer the tail end of the luck curve than to the median. And so, Leonardo says that in his last 11 point match on the SHG server he was very unlucky, and in his last two 13 point matches on the same server he was also very unlucky. But I have no idea what having bad luck in those three matches is supposed to imply about the server's dice.

I could make a guess or three. My understanding is that XG luck is zero-sum -- if you are -11 unlucky, your opponent is +11 lucky. So perhaps (1) the SHG server analyzes board positions and decides to give Leonardo unlucky dice or his opponent lucky dice. Or perhaps (2) the SHG server analyzes board positions and gives Player X unlucky dice and/or his oppoent lucky dice, and Player X just happens to have been Leonardo. But it seems unlikely that a server generates dice dependent on an analysis of board positions, and I can't otherwise fathom why the occurrence of one player being especially unlucky in three matches is supposed to say something obvious about the server's dice without the dice generator peeking at the board positions.

Having had the experience both online and in real life of winning and losing 10 or more games or matches in a row, of winning many points in a session against better players and losing many points in a session to inferiors, I certainly can imagine a series of many games in which one side is, say, repeatedly a 75% favorite to win, but loses. But again, such a series wouldn't obviously suggest to me that there was anything askew with the dice roller.

I'd be interested to know what it was that was supposed to be obvious that I, obviously, am missing.

SHG dice were discussed at length here Sep/Oct 2009. Apparently some players discovered that the RNG was generating only about 9% doubles instead of about 16.66% doubles. In those discussions, there is mention of a version released at the end of Oct 2009 that was supposed to have fixed the problem. But I could find no mention of follow-up testing after Oct 2009. Was that problem indeed fixed, and without creating new ones?

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