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BGonline.org Forums
OLM We 08/11/10
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: OLM We 08/11/10 (Jason Lee)
Date: Thursday, 12 August 2010, at 6:43 p.m.
13/7 is forced and then at most three 3's are in the running:
13/10 leaves 13 immediate shots (2 of which hit both) and moderate pressure on opp (when he fails to roll a 5 or 6).
7/4 also leaves 13 immediate shots (but only one blot) but a bit more pressure as simply running out of our board may not safety either checker, and in most cases leaves us a direct (that is, when we're not hit in the process).
5/2 is pretty dichotomous -- 16 White fans are great for us; 20 White hits are great for White. 1-4 and 2-4 look like White's worst entering numbers since they don't escape and leave the midpoint checker vulnerable.
What about the cube? It figures to be coming our way, regardless, so which (if any) of the candidates leave us with a take? No matter the scenario, if we continue to play this game we are going to have to roll a bunch of 5's to escape White's broken prime.
Given that getting hit brings gammons into play, and getting missed still leaves us in a pretty deep hole, I'm doubting we have a take after any play. So now the "play the opponent" consideration really becomes a factor (against some humans, anyway). Against a not-so-strong opp, likely picking the scariest looking play could stave off the cube for one roll. Against a stong opp, you don't want to give him/her a free shake for the undoubled gammon (which I don't think is likely here, BTW). So 13/7, 5/2* could be best in real life.
Finally, I ask if I'm undervaluing our position, which play gives us the best chance to continue playing? Here again I think the volatile 5/2* is best.
Summary: 13/7, 5/2* (and I'm likely passing the cube unless I'm so far off that it's not coming, or I have an inspired moment before our next vote).
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