Rollout Results Posted

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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Monday, 16 August 2010, at 9:29 p.m.

In Response To: Where in this Succession of Positions Was I Supposed to Redouble? (Paul Weaver)

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 147

9 point match

pip: 139
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=a--BB-CBBA--d---bc-cb-AB--:1:1:1:00:0:1:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 50.47% (G: 22.23% B: 0.51%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 49.53% (G: 11.92% B: 0.98%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 50.85% (G: 23.69% B: 0.76%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 49.15% (G: 12.52% B: 1.95%)

Cubeless Equities
No Redouble: +0.122
Redouble: +0.355

Cubeful Equities
No Redouble: +0.360
Redouble/Take: +0.051 (-0.309)
Redouble/Drop: +1.000 (+0.640)

Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take

Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Redouble: ą 0.021 (+0.339...+0.382)
Confidence Redouble: ą 0.039 (+0.012...+0.091)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 43 minutes 39 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 147

9 point match

pip: 139
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=a--BB-CBBA--d---bc-cb-AB--:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 50.52% (G: 22.81% B: 0.42%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 49.48% (G: 11.92% B: 0.75%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 50.71% (G: 23.26% B: 0.45%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 49.29% (G: 11.79% B: 1.21%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double: +0.108
Double: +0.241

Cubeful Equities
No Double: +0.152
Double/Take: -0.127 (-0.280)
Double/Drop: +1.000 (+0.848)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double: ą 0.031 (+0.121...+0.183)
Confidence Double: ą 0.045 (-0.172...-0.083)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 41 minutes 47 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 147

9 point match

pip: 128
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=a-BBB-CAAA--d---bc-cb-AB--:1:1:1:00:0:1:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 53.19% (G: 28.72% B: 0.33%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 46.81% (G: 10.77% B: 0.98%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 54.02% (G: 30.95% B: 0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 45.98% (G: 10.31% B: 0.95%)

Cubeless Equities
No Redouble: +0.259
Redouble: +0.693

Cubeful Equities
No Redouble: +0.495
Redouble/Take: +0.377 (-0.118)
Redouble/Drop: +1.000 (+0.505)

Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take

Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Redouble: ą 0.022 (+0.473...+0.517)
Confidence Redouble: ą 0.041 (+0.336...+0.417)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 40 minutes 05 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 147

9 point match

pip: 128
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=a-BBB-CAAA--d---bc-cb-AB--:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 53.40% (G: 28.59% B: 0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 46.60% (G: 10.99% B: 0.53%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 53.97% (G: 30.34% B: 0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 46.03% (G: 10.38% B: 0.56%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double: +0.234
Double: +0.576

Cubeful Equities
No Double: +0.327
Double/Take: +0.201 (-0.126)
Double/Drop: +1.000 (+0.673)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double: ą 0.031 (+0.296...+0.358)
Confidence Double: ą 0.048 (+0.154...+0.249)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 36 minutes 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 147

9 point match

pip: 117
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=aBBBB-B-AA--d---bc-cb-AB--:1:1:1:00:0:1:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 56.63% (G: 32.40% B: 0.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.37% (G: 9.15% B: 0.40%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.29% (G: 32.97% B: 0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.71% (G: 8.80% B: 0.45%)

Cubeless Equities
No Redouble: +0.389
Redouble: +0.861

Cubeful Equities
No Redouble: +0.598
Redouble/Take: +0.539 (-0.060)
Redouble/Drop: +1.000 (+0.402)

Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take

Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Redouble: ą 0.016 (+0.582...+0.615)
Confidence Redouble: ą 0.036 (+0.503...+0.575)

Double Decision confidence: 99.9%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 36 minutes 46 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 147

9 point match

pip: 117
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=aBBBB-B-AA--d---bc-cb-AB--:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 57.00% (G: 32.54% B: 0.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.00% (G: 9.08% B: 0.46%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.62% (G: 33.14% B: 0.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.38% (G: 9.01% B: 0.70%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double: +0.366
Double: +0.772

Cubeful Equities
No Double: +0.466
Double/Take: +0.413 (-0.053)
Double/Drop: +1.000 (+0.534)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double: ą 0.023 (+0.443...+0.489)
Confidence Double: ą 0.040 (+0.374...+0.453)

Double Decision confidence: 98.8%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 31 minutes 55 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 147

9 point match

pip: 106
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=aBCBB-B--A--d---bcAcb-AA--:1:1:1:00:0:1:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 57.94% (G: 31.82% B: 0.04%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.06% (G: 8.63% B: 0.37%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.10% (G: 30.28% B: 0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.90% (G: 8.61% B: 0.57%)

Cubeless Equities
No Redouble: +0.414
Redouble: +0.796

Cubeful Equities
No Redouble: +0.625
Redouble/Take: +0.460 (-0.165)
Redouble/Drop: +1.000 (+0.375)

Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take

Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Redouble: ą 0.015 (+0.610...+0.640)
Confidence Redouble: ą 0.035 (+0.424...+0.495)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 38 minutes 01 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 147

9 point match

pip: 106
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=aBCBB-B--A--d---bcAcb-AA--:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 58.76% (G: 31.95% B: 0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 41.24% (G: 8.79% B: 0.30%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.28% (G: 29.92% B: 0.02%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.72% (G: 9.20% B: 0.59%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double: +0.400
Double: +0.681

Cubeful Equities
No Double: +0.528
Double/Take: +0.300 (-0.228)
Double/Drop: +1.000 (+0.472)

Best Cube action: No Double / Take

Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double: ą 0.020 (+0.508...+0.548)
Confidence Double: ą 0.046 (+0.253...+0.346)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 36 minutes 18 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 147

9 point match

pip: 101
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=aCBBB-B--A--d---bcBcb--A--:1:1:1:00:0:1:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 62.67% (G: 34.38% B: 0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.33% (G: 7.60% B: 0.44%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.63% (G: 35.39% B: 0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.37% (G: 7.17% B: 0.73%)

Cubeless Equities
No Redouble: +0.548
Redouble: +1.171

Cubeful Equities
No Redouble: +0.701 (-0.170)
Redouble/Take: +0.872
Redouble/Drop: +1.000 (+0.128)

Best Cube action: Redouble / Take

Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Redouble: ą 0.017 (+0.684...+0.719)
Confidence Redouble: ą 0.033 (+0.839...+0.904)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 12 minutes 06 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 147

9 point match

pip: 101
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=aCBBB-B--A--d---bcBcb--A--:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 63.32% (G: 35.51% B: 0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.68% (G: 7.40% B: 0.31%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.93% (G: 35.14% B: 0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.07% (G: 7.36% B: 0.50%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double: +0.542
Double: +1.075

Cubeful Equities
No Double: +0.603 (-0.158)
Double/Take: +0.760
Double/Drop: +1.000 (+0.240)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double: ą 0.021 (+0.582...+0.624)
Confidence Double: ą 0.038 (+0.722...+0.799)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 13 minutes 31 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 147

9 point match

pip: 96
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=aCBBB-B--A--d---bcCcb-----:1:1:1:00:0:1:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 67.40% (G: 39.40% B: 0.07%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.60% (G: 6.29% B: 0.36%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.53% (G: 39.39% B: 0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.47% (G: 6.61% B: 0.53%)

Cubeless Equities
No Redouble: +0.713
Redouble: +1.478

Cubeful Equities
No Redouble: +0.844 (-0.156)
Redouble/Take: +1.227 (+0.227)
Redouble/Drop: +1.000

Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop

Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Redouble: ą 0.017 (+0.826...+0.861)
Confidence Redouble: ą 0.033 (+1.195...+1.260)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 14 minutes 41 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 147

9 point match

pip: 96
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=aCBBB-B--A--d---bcCcb-----:0:0:1:00:0:1:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 67.24% (G: 39.08% B: 0.06%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.76% (G: 6.23% B: 0.25%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.74% (G: 39.26% B: 0.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.26% (G: 6.37% B: 0.36%)

Cubeless Equities
No Double: +0.670
Double: +1.391

Cubeful Equities
No Double: +0.686 (-0.314)
Double/Take: +1.112 (+0.112)
Double/Drop: +1.000

Best Cube action: Double / Drop

Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Double: ą 0.027 (+0.659...+0.712)
Confidence Double: ą 0.040 (+1.072...+1.152)

Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%

Duration: 12 minutes 16 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 147

9 point match

pip: 96
score: 0

is Player 1

XGID=aCBBB-B--A--d---bcCcb-----:1:1:1:55:0:1:0:9:10
to play 55

1. Rollout¹ 18/13(2) 18/8 eq: +1.271
Player:
Opponent: 83.67% (G:52.81% B:0.05%)
16.33% (G:1.60% B:0.03%) Conf: ą 0.011 (+1.260...+1.282)
Duration: 9 minutes 14 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 18/13(3) 9/4 eq: +1.240 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent: 80.31% (G:49.30% B:0.02%)
19.69% (G:2.19% B:0.05%) Conf: ą 0.009 (+1.231...+1.249)
Duration: 6 minutes 06 seconds

¹ 648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

Where in this Succession of Positions Was I Supposed to Redouble?
Paul Weaver -- Monday, 16 August 2010, at 2:06 p.m.
- Where in this Succession of Positions Was I Supposed to Redouble?
  christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 16 August 2010, at 3:00 p.m.
- Where in this Succession of Positions Was I Supposed to Redouble?
  Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 16 August 2010, at 3:33 p.m.
  - What did the masochist do to the sadist?
    Paul Weaver -- Monday, 16 August 2010, at 4:44 p.m.
    - What did the masochist do to the sadist?
      Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 16 August 2010, at 5:10 p.m.
    - What did the masochist do to the sadist?
      Steve Mellen -- Monday, 16 August 2010, at 7:06 p.m.
- Rollout Results Posted
  Paul Weaver -- Monday, 16 August 2010, at 9:29 p.m.

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Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	50.47% (G: 22.23% B: 0.51%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	49.53% (G: 11.92% B: 0.98%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	50.85% (G: 23.69% B: 0.76%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	49.15% (G: 12.52% B: 1.95%)

Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.122
Redouble:	+0.355

Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.360
Redouble/Take:	+0.051 (-0.309)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.640)

Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take

Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Confidence No Redouble:	ą 0.021 (+0.339...+0.382)
Confidence Redouble:	ą 0.039 (+0.012...+0.091)

Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%

Duration: 43 minutes 39 seconds