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XG Luck Factor Question

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Sunday, 22 August 2010, at 12:39 a.m.

In Response To: XG Luck Factor Question (W Womack)

My question for now is that given that XG's luck rating is a zero sum, i.e. my positive luck is my opponents negative luck, would it be expected that over a significantly large sample of matches that the sum of the XG luck factor should be close to 0?

yes absolutely the luck factor not only should but will tend to 0.

For instance form my own profile from online game (various servers): my average luck is -0.0003 after 23000 experience which confirm my OTB impression that i am always the unlucky one and should win at least 15% more of my games!

In spirit of full disclosure that I may have biased the results slightly: a few years back i got the bad habit to reanalyze my games with 4-ply luck (rather than 3-ply) when I did not like the 3-ply results. This pick and choose system is not good for statistical accuracy.

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