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XG Luck Factor Question - Xavier - do you know what is "normal"?

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Monday, 23 August 2010, at 1:42 p.m.

In Response To: XG Luck Factor Question (W Womack)

We know that if there is no conspiracy against particular players, XG luck factor must always average out to exactly zero on every match if both players are considered, and must tend to zero if only a single player's luck is considered over time. Really, the luck factor is a single absolute value for the match, and it is just a question of which sign is placed on each player. Nobody seems to be questioning that there is a conspiracy to give particular players bad luck. The speculation seems to be that on average, the absolute value of luck for a match is higher than normal.

So the question is what is the mean of the absolute value and the standard deviation of luck for a single player. And then how does this compare with "known" values for these?

Xavier, you have done some simulations on XG of large numbers of matches in the past. Let's say XG 1-ply plays many matches against itself and a 1-ply analysis is done to determine luck factors. Do you know what these statistical norms are for luck factor (mean of absolute value and standard deviation)?

If "normal" luck is understood, then there is a basis for statistically testing the hypothesis that SHG (or any other server) deviates from "normal".

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