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XG Luck Factor Question

Posted By: W Womack
Date: Monday, 23 August 2010, at 5:27 p.m.

In Response To: XG Luck Factor Question (Neil Robins)

I believe it was Phil Simborg that related a story of rolling 4 66's in a row in a chouette back during a discussion of the double frequency on SHG, such events while unlikely do occur.

If you accept that the SHG dice (and here I am only referring to the "yellow dice" rooms) are essentially random than the whole luck factor is too high claim requires quite a bit to bring about.

So the first question is are the SHG dice essentially random? Mike Petch analyzed match samples constituting over a million rolls after SHG "fixed" the doubles problems and tells be he did not find any evidence of a problem. At one point he was posting data to a website, but I never saw his final analysis of the million rolls although I have no reason to doubt him.

Also I have analysis in my XG profile from matches played on SHG that currently total over 120K rolls. Based on XG's dice data analysis there is no indication that that distribution of individual rolls or the sequences of doubles in a row (I think XG only looks at total doubles in a row, not a particular double but I am not at my computer to verify this at the moment) or the expected frequency of entering from the bar are outside the expected ranges. Of course there are more sophisticated test that could be applied to test for randomness, but given that all of these factors are as expected I think it is reasonable to conclude that the SHG dice are "random enough" (i.e. any deviation from randomness is small enough that it would not be evident over the course of a match.)

If one accepts the premise that the SHG dice are essentially random -- which I believe be the case based on the evidence -- and yet concludes that the luck factor is somehow higher than it should be then you would need to propose some sort of mechanism for that to be the case. The only possible mechanism I can conceive of would be that the underlying code is designed to select certain rolls based on certain positional criteria to create a skewed luck rate.

When you think about it to tamper with the rolls to skew the luck rate requires quite a bit of extra programming as well as additional server capacity to perform analysis of the positions behind the scenes and use this data to modify the dice rolls. It also has to be able to do this without significantly skewing the overall dice distribution.

I certainly think that it would possible to do this, but the big question is WHY would the site do this? The site's owner would have to see some significant benefit to provide the additional level of programming and server capacity needed to do this, and that is where the logic breaks down for me. Perhaps if it were a money site that was getting some sort of kick back from players getting the luck break or had bots playing for money that were getting a helping hand from luck it would be worth doing. But for a non-money site like SHG I cannot come up with any reason why they would go to that added trouble and expense.

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