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XG Luck Factor Question

Posted By: W Womack
Date: Monday, 23 August 2010, at 9:36 p.m.

In Response To: XG Luck Factor Question (Rich Munitz)

I am not totally convinced that these types of system errors would result in a larger luck factor as it would seem that they would wash out over the course of a reasonable length match. I would think an error in dice handling that created a high luck number would have to somehow skew toward one player or the other throughout the match, otherwise it would just be noise on both sides of the equation. However, I am willing to grant that while unlikely it is possible that there could be unintentional errors in the system that would generate a increased level of luck for one player over the course of the match without creating enough of a skew in the dice distribution to be detectable. (Actually that last part is probably pretty easy.)

So given that, I am back to the original problem of how would you test to see if there was a suspicious level of luck. Since there is no real expected value for luck per match I still think you need to compare the data to some sort of control set, although I am beginning to wonder if it is possible to find a control set.

Also, the more I think about this I wonder how much of the luck being incorporated in the luck factor is really luck and how much of it is skill based (I think Tim Chow alluded to this). The more highly skilled the player the more likely that many of their rolls will either play reasonable well or if they don't play well will at least produce the minimal amount of damage. While the less skilled player is likely to have a less flexible position and fewer of the possible rolls will create + equity swings and more of the rolls will create - equity swings.

For example suppose I am bearing in or off against contact and have a roll that if played correctly leaves no blotting numbers on the next roll but I play it incorrectly and leave say 4 blotting rolls. When I roll one of those 4 on the next roll I will certainly think it unlucky (after all I have 32 safe numbers) and the negative equity swing will count toward my bad luck number in the match. However, there is an element of that equity swing that is related to my skill (or in this case lack of skill) in playing the previous roll.

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