BGonline.org Forums

Backgame double shot double

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 25 August 2010, at 12:46 a.m.

In Response To: Backgame double shot double (storm)

I calculate a takepoint around 32% cgwc here. Pretty sure White has that. So, take. (Really looks like a big take to me. White's barpoint appears to be a pretty big hurdle for Blue, even though it could be a bit of trouble for White to clear.)

Hit+fan occurs a bit over 26%. Is that sequence a market loser? I'm not sure, but note that in this scenario, White's gammon loss fraction definitely goes up, meaning his takepoint goes up (compared to here) as well.

In practice you could get some gammon-phobic passes. (The flipside is that if opp misreads this enough to pass -- assuming it's a take :) -- then how well will s/he play leading 2a-4a or Crawford-5a?) I feel better doubling too early than too late in this situation. (Maybe my feelings will change when I see an RO....)

D+T.

Messages In This Thread

• Backgame double shot double
  storm -- Tuesday, 24 August 2010, at 8:30 p.m.
  • Backgame double shot double
    johnk -- Tuesday, 24 August 2010, at 9:56 p.m.
  • Backgame double shot double
    Seth -- Tuesday, 24 August 2010, at 10:09 p.m.
  • Backgame double shot double
    Seth -- Tuesday, 24 August 2010, at 10:11 p.m.
  • Backgame double shot double
    Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 25 August 2010, at 12:46 a.m.
  • Backgame double shot double
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Wednesday, 25 August 2010, at 1:35 p.m.
  • Backgame double shot double
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 25 August 2010, at 1:46 p.m.