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OLM Th 08/26/10

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 27 August 2010, at 5:10 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Th 08/26/10 (Jason Lee)

Surely you're not letting the bot roll for us....

Even though we likely win the race more often than not due to White's wastage, I think we win a lot because of our ability to keep White hemmed in, and especially when we hit in our outfield (even though this isn't that likely). This lame roll obviously eats into our racing equity so IMO we need to give heed (note the spelling) to our contact chances. For starters that means not moving off the 13-point this turn. That (realistically) only leaves us four checkers to work with -- the three on our lowest points plus the spare on the 7-point.

With these constraints (and goals), 3/1(2) looks best. That gives us the best chance to hold the prime, the best chance to cover the homeboard blot, and the best chance to hit in our outfield with numbers that don't cover.

Summary: 3/1(2).

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