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Recube action? RD/P

Posted By: Jim Stutz
Date: Monday, 13 September 2010, at 6:53 a.m.

In Response To: Recube action? (John O'Hagan)

Obviously the cube will be coming back dead and on 8 -- no matter what she rolls -- if XG recubes here. Ignoring gammons for the moment, XG needs to be better than 81% to have a recube, right?

Double, win 100%.

Double lose 42%.

no double, win 92%.

no double, lose 77%.

So by recubing she's risking 35% to gain 8%. My guess is that she has more than 81%+ winning chances here with White's 5- and 6-points open, so if she did recube White should pass. But what about gammons? Could XG be too good to recube here? An un-redoubled gammon leaves her a 98% favorite in the match, so her GP is .75, right? So she would have to be maybe 25% or better to win a gammon here to justify holding the cube. Does she win a gammon one time in four in this position? I think not. RD/P

OTB as Brown I would always roll and never recube. Right or dead wrong this kind of analysis takes way too long for me in a timed, live match. And even if I had unlimited time I wouldn't recube because 1) I don't know my METs worth a crap, and I don't trust my in-my-head MET calculations enough to willingly turn the cube to 8 ATS anyway, and 2) I don't have faith in my %-of-gammons predictions.

Messages In This Thread

• Recube action?
  John O'Hagan -- Monday, 13 September 2010, at 3:59 a.m.
  • Recube action? RD/P
    Jim Stutz -- Monday, 13 September 2010, at 6:53 a.m.
    • Recube action? RD/P
      Stick -- Monday, 13 September 2010, at 6:58 a.m.
      • Recube action? RD/P
        Jim Stutz -- Monday, 13 September 2010, at 8:17 a.m.
        • Recube action? RD/P
          Sam Pottle -- Monday, 13 September 2010, at 4:45 p.m.
  • Recube action?
    Stanley E. Richards -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 5:34 a.m.
  • Recube action?
    John O'Hagan -- Tuesday, 14 September 2010, at 4:14 p.m.