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Giant versus average open player

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Wednesday, 15 September 2010, at 4:54 p.m.

In Response To: Giant versus average open player (Joe Russell)

I'm aware that bot-analyzed luck reveals that the luckier player usually wins. But how often, according to that analysis, is the better player rated the luckiest? Here's a very small sample -- the 37 matches I have from the "Denmark vs. the World" competition at the 2010 Nordic Open:

Winner had better error rate and better luck:19= 51.3%
Winner had worse error rate but better luck:15= 40.5%
Winner had better error rate but worse luck:2= 5.4%
Winner had worse error rate and worse luck:1= 2.7%

Player with lowest ER won: 56.7%
Player with better luck won: 91.8%
Player with lowest ER was also luckiest: 54.0%

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