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Short Summary of the method

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Friday, 17 September 2010, at 2:55 p.m.

In Response To: Make This a BG Online Tradition (Stanley E. Richards)

Yes, as Gregg says, it's a rollout. Typically 100,000 trials (seldom shorter, sometimes 1,000,000).

The program has built in (propriety) distribution functions based upon generic (average NFL) opponents. There is the capability of customizing the characteristics of the teams (passing, rushing, all types of kicking) for both offense and defense. This takes quite a bit of time and although sometimes I do it for other reasons than people asking questions here, if I haven't done it I prefer just to answer from the generic case.

We also have the capability of pushing the variables in the direction that tries to overturn the decision. This has the effect of answering the "what if we're not quite on our game today, or what if the opp is playing over their heads today?" I did that for the play you listed and it still wasn't close.

BTW, you can think of a football game as DMP backgammon. A 3% (or 6%) error at DMP is pretty significant, at least (hopefully) for most of us. :)

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