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What are the worst playcalls in the history of football?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 20 September 2010, at 6:33 p.m.

In Response To: What are the worst playcalls in the history of football? (Bill Riles)

A bit of hyperbole by me? :)

The error is strongly dependent upon the distribution of ball locations after the punt. The ACTUAL result (touchback --> 20 yardline) is close to 20% GWC error, but that isn't the expected yardline. But even 10 yardline (which I think is too generous) is around 12% GWC error. (And to do this correctly, you don't average resulting ball locations but actually average GWC(X), weighted by number of times ball ends on X yardline.)

All of the quoted GWC numbers assume league average input values. To do it accurately, the team customizations should be used.

Messages In This Thread

• OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
  Bill Riles -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 1:08 a.m.
  • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
    neilkaz -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 2:25 a.m.
    • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 2:35 a.m.
      • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
        neilkaz -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 3:08 a.m.
        • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
          Bill Riles -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 3:16 a.m.
        • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
          Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 12:51 p.m.
        • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
          Bob Koca -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 4:14 p.m.
          • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
            neilkaz -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 5:00 p.m.
            • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
              Barry Silliman -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 5:10 p.m.
              • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
                neilkaz -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 5:20 p.m.
                • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
                  Barry Silliman -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 6:19 p.m.
          • REAL "faith in the defense"
            Chuck Bower -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 5:06 p.m.
    • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 2:40 a.m.
      • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
        neilkaz -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 3:06 a.m.
        • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
          Bill Riles -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 4:59 a.m.
        • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
          Joe Russell -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 5:39 a.m.
          • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
            Bill Riles -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 1:32 p.m.
          • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
            neilkaz -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 2:28 p.m.
          • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
            Chuck Bower -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 3:16 p.m.
            • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
              Bill Riles -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 3:29 p.m.
            • Rackers ill, not injured
              Joe Russell -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 10:32 p.m.
              • Rackers ill, not injured
                Jason Lee -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 10:54 p.m.
                • natural grass
                  Adam Versaw -- Tuesday, 21 September 2010, at 12:17 a.m.
              • Rackers ill, not injured
                Gregg Cattanach -- Tuesday, 21 September 2010, at 1:55 p.m.
                • Rackers ill, not injured
                  Joe Russell -- Tuesday, 21 September 2010, at 6:54 p.m.
                  • Rackers ill, not injured
                    Gregg Cattanach -- Wednesday, 22 September 2010, at 12:05 p.m.
          • OK, Chuck, How Big a Clone is Kubiak?
            Bill Riles -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 4:08 p.m.
  • RO
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 3:12 p.m.
    • 4th and 4 !! Kubiak should be fired *NM*
      neilkaz -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 3:22 p.m.
      • Although if FG is really 50% I'd try it
        neilkaz -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 3:25 p.m.
        • Go for 1st down WAY better than punt
          Chuck Bower -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 3:34 p.m.
          • Which is why I say he should be fired over this idiocy *NM*
            neilkaz -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 10:03 p.m.
            • Which is why I say he should be fired over this idiocy
              Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 10:53 p.m.
              • Penalty acceptance
                Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 21 September 2010, at 2:29 p.m.
    • RO
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 3:35 p.m.
      • GWC and EMG
        Chuck Bower -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 3:49 p.m.
    • RO
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 3:39 p.m.
  • Would NFL coaches make good BG players?
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 3:30 p.m.
    • Would NFL coaches make good BG players?
      Barry Silliman -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 4:21 p.m.
      • Would NFL coaches make good BG players?
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 4:37 p.m.
      • Would NFL coaches make good BG players?
        Chuck Bower -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 5:11 p.m.
        • Would NFL coaches make good BG players?
          Barry Silliman -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 6:31 p.m.
          • Would NFL coaches make good BG players?
            Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 21 September 2010, at 1:52 p.m.
      • Would NFL coaches make good BG players?
        Steve Mellen -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 8:01 p.m.
  • What are the worst playcalls in the history of football?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 3:42 p.m.
    • What are the worst playcalls in the history of football?
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 3:45 p.m.
    • What are the worst playcalls in the history of football?
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 5:01 p.m.
      • What are the worst playcalls in the history of football?
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 6:13 p.m.
        • What are the worst playcalls in the history of football?
          Chuck Bower -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 6:33 p.m.
          • What are the worst playcalls in the history of football?
            Steve Mellen -- Monday, 20 September 2010, at 7:53 p.m.
            • What are the worst playcalls in the history of football?
              Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 21 September 2010, at 1:55 p.m.