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Outlier

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 1:17 a.m.

In Response To: Play on? (Stick)

There's another factor which (I think) you failed to mention: the possibility that opp takes.

Now, before you go saying "only a super-donk would take", you're right. But super-donks are pretty common. I find it valuable to always remember the mathematical equity term: Probability(A)*Value(A). It may not happen often, but when it does... gravy!

I remember watching a $-cube prop at a tournament (Pitt, I think) back in the mid-late 90's. Harry Cohn (a strong Chicago player -- don't know why he disappeared) and Kurt Schurect (sp?, another pretty good Chicago player) were one side with Harry playing the checkers. I don't know the other two players, so I'm guessing they weren't nearly as good. Anyway, a position reached a pure 3 roll vs. 3 roll situation and Harry recubed. The 'captain' for the other side took! His partner asked (after the game ended) "why did you do that?" Obviously HE knew it was a negative equity decision. His partner just shrugged. OK, not a big swing. But it shows then even when players KNOW they are making an error, they can STILL make one. And what about when they're unsure?

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