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"Very unlucky," says GNU

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 6:13 p.m.

In Response To: "Very unlucky," says GNU (Timothy Chow)

If you leave the extra shots now, that 5.6% hits.

If you leave the odd high (2,2,1) on the (4,5,6) points, you pay off next turn whenever missed and you roll any two of {3,4,5,6}, then get hit:

(23/36)*(16/36)*(11/36) ~ (7/36)*(4/9) = 7/81 ~ 8.6%.

There are potentially more shots later on (plus a few rare outliers like White's 2-2 roll), but if the above numbers are anywhere near right I don't see future shots changing the decision. (Future shot equity is probably worse for the non-clearing play, anyway.)

Usually it's not right to give more immediate shots, but obviously "usually" != "always" and sometimes it pays to count.

5/2(3), 4/1.

Messages In This Thread

• "Very unlucky," says GNU
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 25 September 2010, at 11:05 p.m.
  • "Very unlucky," says GNU
    Klaus Evers -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 4:22 p.m.
  • "Very unlucky," says GNU
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 6:13 p.m.
    • "Very unlucky," says GNU
      Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 7:19 p.m.
      • "Very unlucky," says GNU
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 26 September 2010, at 10:05 p.m.
        • "Very unlucky," says GNU
          Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 27 September 2010, at 1:40 a.m.
      • "Very unlucky," says GNU
        Sam Pottle -- Monday, 27 September 2010, at 2:22 p.m.
  • Rollout: "Very unlucky," says GNU
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 27 September 2010, at 12:37 a.m.