I just realized that I did not post all the variants of Phil's position that I rolled out. These are all at DMP. The first is Phil's original setup.
I think it's interesting that in the third position, 6/1(2) is a close play even though there are only two spares on the 6 point. Also, in the fourth position, taking two off the 6 point doesn't quite make it to the top of the list even though there are five checkers on the 6 point.
Despite what Keene and MCG said, I believe this position and its variants are both non-trivial and instructive.
| # | Ply | Move | Equity |
| • | 1 | R | 17/2 6/1 | +0.393 |
| | | 0.697 | 0.186 | 0.003 | - | 0.303 | 0.060 | 0.000 | +0.393 | +0.393 | | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.000 | - | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895331118 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 2 | R | 10/5(2) 6/1(2) | +0.338 ( -0.055) |
| | | 0.669 | 0.237 | 0.005 | - | 0.331 | 0.091 | 0.001 | +0.338 | +0.338 | | 0.001 | 0.007 | 0.001 | - | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895331118 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 3 | R | 13/8(2) 6/1(2) | +0.337 ( -0.056) |
| | | 0.669 | 0.187 | 0.002 | - | 0.331 | 0.080 | 0.000 | +0.337 | +0.337 | | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.000 | - | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895331118 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity |
| • | 1 | R | 13/8(2) 6/1(2) | +0.421 |
| | | 0.710 | 0.212 | 0.002 | - | 0.290 | 0.066 | 0.000 | +0.421 | +0.421 | | 0.001 | 0.007 | 0.001 | - | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895200080 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 2 | R | 10/5(2) 6/1(2) | +0.385 ( -0.036) |
| | | 0.692 | 0.256 | 0.004 | - | 0.308 | 0.073 | 0.001 | +0.385 | +0.385 | | 0.001 | 0.007 | 0.001 | - | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895200080 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 3 | R | 17/2 6/1 | +0.371 ( -0.050) |
| | | 0.685 | 0.191 | 0.002 | - | 0.315 | 0.075 | 0.000 | +0.371 | +0.371 | | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.000 | - | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.003 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895200080 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity |
| • | 1 | R | 17/2 6/1 | +0.403 |
| | | 0.702 | 0.202 | 0.002 | - | 0.298 | 0.070 | 0.001 | +0.403 | +0.403 | | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.004 | - | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894710046 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 2 | R | 13/8(2) 6/1(2) | +0.391 ( -0.012) |
| | | 0.695 | 0.210 | 0.004 | - | 0.305 | 0.082 | 0.001 | +0.391 | +0.391 | | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.001 | - | 0.001 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894710046 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 3 | R | 17/2 13/8 | +0.347 ( -0.056) |
| | | 0.674 | 0.166 | 0.003 | - | 0.326 | 0.091 | 0.000 | +0.347 | +0.347 | | 0.002 | 0.006 | 0.001 | - | 0.002 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 894710046 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| # | Ply | Move | Equity |
| • | 1 | R | 17/2 13/8 | +0.360 |
| | | 0.680 | 0.175 | 0.004 | - | 0.320 | 0.072 | 0.000 | +0.360 | +0.360 | | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.001 | - | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895093303 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 2 | R | 17/12 13/8 6/1(2) | +0.344 ( -0.016) |
| | | 0.672 | 0.218 | 0.003 | - | 0.328 | 0.109 | 0.001 | +0.344 | +0.344 | | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.001 | - | 0.001 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895093303 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 3 | R | 10/5(2) 6/1(2) | +0.344 ( -0.016) |
| | | 0.672 | 0.247 | 0.004 | - | 0.328 | 0.090 | 0.001 | +0.344 | +0.344 | | 0.001 | 0.007 | 0.001 | - | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895093303 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 4 | R | 17/2 6/1 | +0.327 ( -0.032) |
| | | 0.664 | 0.175 | 0.003 | - | 0.336 | 0.083 | 0.001 | +0.327 | +0.327 | | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.001 | - | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895093303 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | 5 | R | 13/8 6/1(3) | +0.315 ( -0.045) |
| | | 0.657 | 0.213 | 0.003 | - | 0.343 | 0.094 | 0.001 | +0.315 | +0.315 | | 0.001 | 0.006 | 0.001 | - | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.003 | | |
| | Full cubeful rollout with var.redn. | |
| | 1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 895093303 and quasi-random dice | |
| | Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |
| | keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32 | |
| | Skip pruning for 1-ply moves. | |
| | Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class] | |