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Unlimited Game - Cube Action

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 10 October 2010, at 1:11 a.m.

In Response To: Unlimited Game - Cube Action (Dave Ranson)

Assume redouble+take.

1) 4/36 Coffee misses and Cream cashes.

2) ~22/36 Coffee hits and Cream fans, giving javahead shots at a second checker.

3) ~10/36 Coffee hits but Cream enters (usually safetying the second blot).

Case 1): Cream wins.

Case 2): Cream wins 20% games, loses 15% gammons, loses 65% simple.

Case 3): Cream wins 60%, loses 40%.

Case 1): (4/36)*(+8) = +0.9.

Case 2): (22/36)*[(0.2)*(+8) + (0.15)*(-16) + (0.65)*(-8)] = (11/18)*[1.6 + (-2.4) + (-5.2)] = 0.61*(-6) = -3.7.

Case 3): (+8)*(0.6 - 0.4) = 1.6.

Adds up to a clear pass. (Note if I estimate 1 & 2 right then Cream would need to win a bit more than 2/3 of the case 3's in order to have a borderline take.)

Too good? More likely "too greedy".

D+P.

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