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OT - Football Stats?

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 10 October 2010, at 7:26 p.m.

In Response To: OT - Football Stats ? (ZEUS) (Stick)

It depends upon position on the field. Near the goalline (the Redzone side) it's quite a bit harder.

I don't have the most up-to-date data, and because the NFL doesn't go for it much, even the best available data have pretty larger error bars. In fact to get enough data (not near the goalline), 3rd down success is typically used. But the NFL averages are something like:

Goal to go: 1 yard to go -- ~53% (run), 2 yards to go -- ~47% (either).

Near midfield: 1 yard to go -- ~65% (run), 2 yards to go -- ~58% (average of run and pass).

Passing with 4th and 1 is rather rare, so hard to get stats. Before someone else points this out, 4th and goal from the 2 is the same situation as 2-point conversion attempt after touchdown (in the NFL; NCAA gets ball 3 yards out).

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