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The Time Management Problem

Posted By: Rich Munitz
Date: Wednesday, 13 October 2010, at 6:49 p.m.

In Response To: The Time Management Problem (Bob Koca)

I agree. Both contests offer the exact same winning chances.

I may be starting to grasp this. Let's say that you have met a genie who will grant you the wish to call one coin flip. You are given the choice between guaranteeing an H in flip #1, or guaranteeing an H if the contest should ever reach DMP. Is there an optimal use of this wish?

The answer is that it doesn't matter which one you choose. The wish only benefits you in the case where the other N-1 flips turn out to be exactly half H, half T. The chance of that is the same regardless of whether those others are flips 2..N or 1..N-1.

This suggests that shifting winning chances from one game to another via the use of clock time will similarly not matter.

Messages In This Thread

• The Time Management Problem
  Fabrice Liardet -- Wednesday, 13 October 2010, at 11:37 a.m.
  • The Time Management Problem
    Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 13 October 2010, at 12:03 p.m.
    • The Time Management Problem
      Fabrice Liardet -- Wednesday, 13 October 2010, at 12:53 p.m.
      • The Time Management Problem
        Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 13 October 2010, at 2:09 p.m.
  • The Time Management Problem
    Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 13 October 2010, at 1:44 p.m.
    • The Time Management Problem
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 13 October 2010, at 4:21 p.m.
      • The Time Management Problem
        Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 13 October 2010, at 4:35 p.m.
        • The Time Management Problem
          Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 13 October 2010, at 4:59 p.m.
        • The Time Management Problem
          Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 13 October 2010, at 5:00 p.m.
        • The Time Management Problem
          Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 13 October 2010, at 5:06 p.m.
          • The Time Management Problem
            Rich Munitz -- Wednesday, 13 October 2010, at 6:49 p.m.
            • The Time Management Problem
              Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 13 October 2010, at 9:11 p.m.
      • The Time Management Problem
        Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 14 October 2010, at 7:53 p.m.
  • The Time Management Problem
    Gregg Cattanach -- Wednesday, 13 October 2010, at 3:18 p.m.
  • The Time Management Problem
    eXtreme Gammon -- Wednesday, 13 October 2010, at 8:40 p.m.
    • The Time Management Problem
      Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 14 October 2010, at 8:00 p.m.
      • The Time Management Problem
        eXtreme Gammon -- Friday, 15 October 2010, at 2:08 a.m.
        • The Time Management Problem
          Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 15 October 2010, at 7:53 a.m.
          • Ughh, scratch the last sentence
            Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 15 October 2010, at 8:25 a.m.
            • Ughh, scratch the last sentence
              Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 15 October 2010, at 9:11 a.m.
              • Ughh, scratch the last sentence
                Fabrice Liardet -- Friday, 15 October 2010, at 9:29 a.m.
                • Ughh, scratch the last sentence
                  Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 15 October 2010, at 9:36 a.m.
                • Ughh, scratch the last sentence
                  Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 15 October 2010, at 10:59 a.m.
                  • Ughh, scratch the last sentence
                    Fabrice Liardet -- Friday, 15 October 2010, at 12:26 p.m.
                    • Ughh, scratch the last sentence
                      Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 15 October 2010, at 5:23 p.m.
                      • Ughh, scratch the last sentence
                        Fabrice Liardet -- Sunday, 17 October 2010, at 6:17 p.m.
                • Ughh, scratch the last sentence
                  eXtreme Gammon -- Friday, 15 October 2010, at 12:40 p.m.
                  • Ughh, scratch the last sentence
                    Fabrice Liardet -- Friday, 15 October 2010, at 2:35 p.m.