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Rollout

Posted By: Carlo Melzi
Date: Thursday, 14 October 2010, at 9:25 a.m.

In Response To: Theoretical question (Carlo Melzi)

I found this position extremely interesting, probably because I myself like to delay doubling at this score and found it very profitable in the past.

As the rollout below shows, this is a clear take for money:





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 158
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-b---BD-C---cD---b-bb-bAbA:0:0:-1:D:0:0:3:0:10
double to 2 take ?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 63,63% (G: 34,37% B: 0,73%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36,37% (G: 9,07% B: 0,52%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64,71% (G: 41,89% B: 0,46%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35,29% (G: 9,56% B: 0,62%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0,273
Double:+1,232
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0,674 (-0,251)
Double/Take:+0,926
Double/Drop:+1,000 (+0,074)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 5669075
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0,015 (+0,660...+0,689)
Confidence Double: ± 0,031 (+0,895...+0,957)
Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 20 minutes 38 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20

Howeever, it is a clear pass at -p-3:





is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 133
11 point match
pip: 158
score: 10

is Player 1
XGID=-b---BD-C---cD---b-bb-bAbA:0:0:-1:D:10:8:0:11:10
double to 2 take ?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 64,06% (G: 34,93% B: 1,29%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35,94% (G: 9,90% B: 0,70%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64,41% (G: 42,31% B: 2,05%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35,59% (G: 11,32% B: 2,10%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0,325
Double:+1,188
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0,824 (-0,176)
Double/Take:+1,188 (+0,188)
Double/Drop:+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 5669075
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0,016 (+0,808...+0,840)
Confidence Double: ± 0,024 (+1,164...+1,213)
Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 7 minutes 04 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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