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Rollout

Posted By: Carlo Melzi
Date: Thursday, 14 October 2010, at 12:10 p.m.

In Response To: Theoretical question (Carlo Melzi)





is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 74
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 134
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=---aBBCCBa-------A-AbbcccA:0:0:-1:D:0:0:3:0:10
double to 2 take ?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 62,58% (G: 39,06% B: 0,37%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37,42% (G: 4,76% B: 0,16%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63,22% (G: 39,27% B: 0,35%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36,78% (G: 4,87% B: 0,16%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0,252
Double:+1,221
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0,590 (-0,315)
Double/Take:+0,905
Double/Drop:+1,000 (+0,095)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 5669075
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0,016 (+0,574...+0,606)
Confidence Double: ± 0,038 (+0,868...+0,943)
Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 1 minute 59 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20
is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 74
11 point match
pip: 134
score: 10

is Player 1
XGID=---aBBCCBa-------A-AbbcccA:0:0:-1:D:10:8:0:11:10
double to 2 take ?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 61,90% (G: 38,03% B: 0,52%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38,10% (G: 3,90% B: 0,12%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62,38% (G: 39,02% B: 2,59%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37,62% (G: 4,12% B: 0,07%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0,268
Double:+1,079
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0,714 (-0,286)
Double/Take:+1,079 (+0,079)
Double/Drop:+1,000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 5669075
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0,010 (+0,704...+0,724)
Confidence Double: ± 0,019 (+1,061...+1,098)
Double Decision confidence: 100,0%
Take Decision confidence: 100,0%
Duration: 3 minutes 12 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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