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The Time Management Problem

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Friday, 15 October 2010, at 2:08 a.m.

In Response To: The Time Management Problem (Fabrice Liardet)

I may have made a mistake on my calculations, it would not be the 1st time nor the last, but i doubled checked them and i think i got that right.

I don't agree with Bob's Argument. The last game is not as important as the previous ones, because in most variation it will not be played (between equally match opponents there is only 22.56% chance the 13th game will be needed)

Let's simplify the process and make it a 3 games match with 3 minutes to use.

Let's assume if I use 1 minute per game i get a 25% chance to win each game. On the other hand if I decide to sacrifice the last game and spend 1.5 minutes per game, let's assume I've a 40% chance to win each game. (With your lost gwc formula these values (25% and 10% gwc lost) mean C=1.563 and a=1.833)

In the second case I must win the first 2 games as i will forfeit the last one having no time left. So my mwc is 16%.

for the first case i need to win 2 of 3 with a 25% gwc which give a mwc of 15.625%

So again the 2nd strategy is better than the evenly distributed time.

I realize it very unlikely that adding 0.5 min can increase my gwc that much, but it is possible and it shows that Bob's argument is not correct.

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