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Minimum # of Trials and Confidence

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 16 October 2010, at 5:32 a.m.

In Response To: Minimum # of Trials and Confidence (Daniel Murphy)

I thought what I actually said was uncontroversial. Apparently not

Apparently not. I fear if myself and Tim misunderstood it many more people may have also and I'm worried that these are the people asking questions about rollouts. I don't want them to be confused into thinking that maybe a rollout can be good enough after 1 trial or that they shouldn't have a bare minimum number of trials before stopping a rollout, they should.

I see, we aren't speaking the same language. I was replying to a person using XG and later believe I made it clear I was recommending this for XG users only. The main reason being that in the time it takes you to sneeze you'll have an okay minimum number of trials (324). For Snowie and GNU I used to use 108 trials as my bottom floor minimum.

Someone asked a general rollout question showing they didn't know in general what they're supposed to be doing concerning rollouts. I am more than happy if he took away from it that the minimum number of trials they should let any rollout run is 324.

A sufficient number of trials depends on how close the decision is, the variance in the result, and one's interest in and time available for finding a particularly precise answer. There is no magic minimum number of trials (including 324) that is necessary or sufficient

I never said or implied that 324 trials was sufficient, I implied it is the minimum number necessary before I would even pay attention to what the results had to say. I stand by this and will recommend it to anyone and everyone using XG.

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
  Stick -- Friday, 15 October 2010, at 10:21 p.m.
  • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
    Timothy Chow -- Friday, 15 October 2010, at 11:08 p.m.
    • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
      Tom Keith -- Saturday, 16 October 2010, at 1:31 p.m.
  • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
    Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 16 October 2010, at 2:22 a.m.
    • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
      Stick -- Saturday, 16 October 2010, at 5:32 a.m.
      • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
        Daniel Murphy -- Saturday, 16 October 2010, at 6:34 p.m.
        • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
          Neil Robins -- Sunday, 17 October 2010, at 5:32 p.m.
          • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
            Stick -- Sunday, 17 October 2010, at 6:19 p.m.
            • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
              eXtreme Gammon -- Sunday, 17 October 2010, at 7:27 p.m.
              • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
                Daniel Murphy -- Wednesday, 20 October 2010, at 5:55 p.m.
    • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 17 October 2010, at 4:53 p.m.
      • In defense of single trial rollouts
        Tom Keith -- Sunday, 17 October 2010, at 7:46 p.m.
        • In defense of single trial rollouts
          Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 19 October 2010, at 11:42 a.m.
          • In defense of single trial rollouts
            Tom Keith -- Tuesday, 19 October 2010, at 2:54 p.m.
            • In defense of single trial rollouts
              Maik Stiebler -- Tuesday, 19 October 2010, at 3:56 p.m.
            • In defense of single trial rollouts
              Bob Koca -- Tuesday, 19 October 2010, at 7:18 p.m.
              • In defense of single trial rollouts
                Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 19 October 2010, at 8:42 p.m.
              • In defense of single trial rollouts
                Tom Keith -- Wednesday, 20 October 2010, at 11:17 p.m.
    • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
      Tom Keith -- Sunday, 17 October 2010, at 8:19 p.m.
  • OT Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
    svilo -- Saturday, 16 October 2010, at 8:46 a.m.
  • Minimum # of Trials and Confidence
    higonefive -- Saturday, 16 October 2010, at 11:25 a.m.
  • 324 is basically my minimum.
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 19 October 2010, at 4:50 p.m.