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Going For One or Two When Down by 15pts

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Monday, 25 October 2010, at 5:11 a.m.

In Response To: OT -- Weekend Football Observations -- Long (Bill Riles)

Question for Bill Riles:

You are down by 15pts in the fourth quarter. You score a touchdown. Is your chance of getting a successful 2pt conversion now greater or less than it would be after you scored another touchdown?

My point here is that we have to assume that your chance of getting a successful 2pt conversion is the same now as it would be after scoring another touchdown.

Now that we have agreed that the chance of getting a successful 2pt conversion now is the same as later, it should be a simple matter for you to sit down with pen and paper to determine your winning % if you go for 2pts versus your winning % if you go for 1pt now. Let us know what you come up with.

Want to make a bet about what the program written by Chuck and Frank will say?

Listening to you, I learned that all of the college teams are lousy this year. That being true, no team has played a game against any good team thus far this year. I am predicting this trend will continue for the duration of the season.

At the conclusion of almost every single season, if you look at the scores of the team that wins the national championship, you find that the #1 team had a few narrow escapes against low rated or unrated teams. Escaping with a three-point win against a mediocre team does not necessarily mean anything.

Finally, a team can have absolutely the worst defense in all of college football and still be the strongest team if its offense is strong enough. You have pointed out that Auburn has a weak defense, but this fact does not preclude the possibility that Auburn may be the best team right now.

P.S.

Cam Newton, Auburn's quarterback, is a strong Heisman trophy candidate. While a freshman at Florida two years ago, he was caught with a stolen laptop in his possession, or maybe he threw it out the window when they were hot on his trail.

The jealous Alabama fans (who last month were #1 and considered themselves a lock to repeat the national champhionship) are saying that if Cam Newton does not win the Heisman trophy, he will just steal it.

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