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OT -- Weekend Football Observations -- Long

Posted By: Bill Riles
Date: Monday, 25 October 2010, at 5:44 p.m.

In Response To: OT -- Weekend Football Observations -- Long (Rich Munitz)

The analysis by most of you befuddles me. I can think of two similar sports situations.

In basketball you trail by five points w/ a very few seconds left and w/ the ball. You come down the court and the opponent is very closely guarding any three point shot attempts but is conceding you the lay-up. What do you do? Seemingly, most of you shoot the three pointer anyway. I take the lay-up. It's called a 'two possession' game for a reason.

In football you trail by ten with a minute or two to go and have fourth and goal from the eight. What do you do? I kick the field goal. Seemingly, many of you go for the touchdown. Sure, the requisite later field goal may ultimately be considerably longer, but you have to take the points to stay in the game.

Here you need fifteen points before the touchdown. So, you need two touchdowns, a two-point conversion, and a one-point conversion to tie the game and go into overtime. The success of the one-point conversion success is all but guaranteed, assuring you completion of two of the four necessary tasks, and assuring you of the opportunity to tie the game. The success of the two-point conversion is less than 50% (I could quickly only find NFL stats establishing the success rate at 40%). If you make it, you then play for a single touchdown and, in all likelihood, kick the point to tie the game. If you miss it, the game is effectively over. With time considerations, time out considerations, and the requirement of recovering two onside kicks rendering the possibility beyond remote.

If you miss the initial two-point conversion you also give your opponent additional flexibility. Say everything goes in your favor and you pin the opponent on his own one yard line on fourth down. If he's eight ahead he's punting. If he's nine ahead he can always take a safety and free kick from his twenty.

And, Rich, how many teams trailing by seven score a late touchdown and go for two? Almost never. Perhaps only in a few cases where a grossly inferior teams takes a shot at a win.

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