[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

OT -- Weekend Football Observations -- Long

Posted By: Steve Mellen
Date: Monday, 25 October 2010, at 8:48 p.m.

In Response To: OT -- Weekend Football Observations -- Long (Bill Riles)

If Oklahoma only trails by eight (and I think there was something like 3:13 to go) they may choose to kick deep on the kick-off, try to stop Missouri on three downs, and force them to punt. Oklahoma could then have reasonably good mid-field field position -- w/ maybe 1:30 to go and no time outs. In the college game, with timeouts accompanying first downs, this is far from a hopeless position. Missouri does not want this scenario to occur so they will play to make a first down -- they may not make a first down and be forced to punt or they may have a turnover. Either way, you make them play rather than simply letting them run out the game.

All of this is true. But Oklahoma will still need to make a 2-point conversion at the end of all that, or none of it matters. They haven't gained any equity, they've just postponed the moment of truth.

Let's put some numbers on this.

A = chance of making a 2-point conversion B = chance of making a 1-point conversion C = chance of Oklahoma getting the ball back and scoring another touchdown after this conversion D = chance of Oklahoma scoring twice after this conversion (very low)

Following your strategy, there is only one way to win: take the PAT now, get the ball back and score, and make a 2-point conversion to force overtime. This parlay can be expressed as B * C * A.

Following the moronic Bob Stoops strategy, there are two ways to win. The realistic way is to make the 2-point conversion now, get the ball back and score, and make a 1-point conversion to force overtime. The long-shot method is to miss the 2-point conversion but score twice. This parlay can be expressed as A * C * B + (1.0 - A) * D.

Assign whatever numbers you consider plausible to these variables. If D is zero, they will come out the same. If D is anything other than zero, the second strategy will win more games. The first strategy will never come out ahead.

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.