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OT -- Weekend Football Observations -- Long

Posted By: Barry Silliman
Date: Tuesday, 26 October 2010, at 12:52 a.m.

In Response To: OT -- Weekend Football Observations -- Long (Steve Mellen)

You're right. I mangled the variables. C is the same whether they are down 8 or 7.

So, I am going to massage the numbers to make a new case.

Here's my hypothesis:

The chance of making the 2-pt conversion is higher if waiting until the end.

Here's why- if they go for it on the first touchdown, they are more nervous because they know if they fail they are still down 2 scores, so they are more likely to choke.

If they go for it on the second touchdown, they are totally stoked because they have the momentum of two straight scores and the other team knows they are about to choke a 15 point lead, so the percentage goes up.

It could happen!

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