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OT -- Weekend Football Observations -- Long

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Tuesday, 26 October 2010, at 4:18 a.m.

In Response To: OT -- Weekend Football Observations -- Long (Steve Mellen)

I don't know a thing about American football, and only a little about basketball (but could bore all to death about soccer). In general, I think that in these catch-up situations I'd prefer to try for the more risky, higher reward option first, other things equal, because of what you mention - possibility to win at the last possession, or catch up after a single-point score.

But it is difficult to analyze completely, in Bill's example, you'd need to know how well-defended the three-pointer is, and how poorly defended the lay-up, it could be that going for the two-pointer is right if the numbers are skewed enough compared to what can be expected for the last possession.

BTW - something that you touch upon, in choosing between a game-tying two-pointer and a game-winning three-pointer, my impression is that too often teams go for the two-pointer. Right?

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