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OT -- Weekend Football Observations -- Long

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Tuesday, 26 October 2010, at 1:38 p.m.

In Response To: OT -- Weekend Football Observations -- Long (Steve Mellen)

I think two point attempts are less than twice as likely to succeed that three-points attempts - so believe better to go for the win in most cases.

I think your perception and statement about the strong human urge are right. Kahnemann and Tversky did a lot of experiments on this, and launched what they called 'prospect theory', which is one of the few economic theories that are actually based on robust micro experiments. One of them got the Nobel prize for this, together with another co-worker - the other did not live long enough for to get the prize. I should dig it up again and summarize - it was actually very interesting and may be of interest to people in a number of professions (traders and negotiators).

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