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Analysis

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Wednesday, 27 October 2010, at 12:29 a.m.

In Response To: A good example (Chuck Bower)

Assumptions: 40% success rate on 2-pt conversion for college. (It's 47% in pros, but they get the ball at the 2 yardline whereas college gets it at the 3.) 17% chance to recover a 'telegraphed' onside kick. Equal chances in OT after accounting for homefield effects.

0) (6:06 remain, OK trails by 9 with PAT decision on the line; 2 TO's remain.) (Oklahoma) Attempting 2 better than attempting 1 by 0.06% GWC (j.s.d. = 0.014% GWC). (From now on, all units are GWC so I won't explicitly state the units.) CORRECT

1) (Oklahoma) normal KO better by 0.17% (j.s.d. = 0.036%). WRONG

2a) (Missouri) goes for 1st down at opp's 45 yardline with 4:40 remaining -- OK has zero timeouts left: Go better than punt by 0.25% (j.s.d. = 0.02%) CORRECT

2b) (Missouri) punts at opp's 35 yardline with 2:46 on clock facing 4th and 2: Going for 1st down better by 0.4% (j.s.d. 0.02%). WRONG

3) (Oklahoma) punts at own 7 w/2:24 on clock facing 4th and 10: going for 1st down better by 0.8% (j.s.d. 0.01%). WRONG

Summary:

A) the play that was discussed ad infinitum is by far the least important of these five situations.

B) of the five plays, they got 2 right -- the 3rd and 5th most important (in terms of GWC equity at stake).

C) the biggest error of the five was a white flag waving, i.e. concession of a loss, probably a 'political' decision to influence Bowl committees and/or BCS voters. In fact, a megawhopping 80% of available equity was sacrificed by punting. Hope OK enjoys that extra $100k they get for upping their bowl invitation most of the time (while jettisoning some of their chances for playing for a national championship). (Sarcasm intended.)

Messages In This Thread

• Question For Chuck Bower And Frank Frigo
  Paul Weaver -- Monday, 25 October 2010, at 5:45 p.m.
  • Answer for Paul Weaver
    Chuck Bower -- Monday, 25 October 2010, at 9:17 p.m.
    • A good example
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 25 October 2010, at 10:36 p.m.
      • Question for Dr. Bower
        Paul Weaver -- Monday, 25 October 2010, at 11:45 p.m.
        • Some answers
          Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 26 October 2010, at 4:07 p.m.
          • Some answers
            Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 26 October 2010, at 6:22 p.m.
            • Some answers
              Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 26 October 2010, at 9:14 p.m.
              • Some answers
                Bill Riles -- Tuesday, 26 October 2010, at 9:16 p.m.
      • Can Chuck Give A PR to FootBall Coaches?
        Paul Weaver -- Monday, 25 October 2010, at 11:50 p.m.
        • been there,...
          Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 26 October 2010, at 3:51 p.m.
      • Analysis
        Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 27 October 2010, at 12:29 a.m.
        • Analysis
          Steve Mellen -- Wednesday, 27 October 2010, at 1:11 a.m.
          • Analysis
            Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 27 October 2010, at 11:41 a.m.
          • Analysis
            Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 27 October 2010, at 2:15 p.m.
        • Analysis
          Jason Lee -- Wednesday, 27 October 2010, at 1:25 a.m.