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More Go-for-Two OT

Posted By: Joe Russell
Date: Friday, 29 October 2010, at 5:13 a.m.

In Response To: More Go-for-Two OT (Bob Koca)

'Suppose you know that the other side is not going to get a FG. Safeties are rare so let's discount that. So they get just TDs. If you knew that in advance you definitely want to go for 2 so a later FG by you could tie the game.

Now suppose you know that the other side will be getting a FG. You probably should get the extra point then. But since two point percentage is not that much less than half of extra point %age you haven't lost that much.

The gains from first consideration outweigh those in second consideration.'

I agree with your analysis.

The result of your two-point-conversion attempt will effect the type of score your opponent needs: if you go for two and miss, the opponent will be slightly more likely to go for a field goal than if you had kicked for the three point lead; if you make the two-point-conversion, it definitely will cause the opponent to go for a touchdown rather than a field goal. But, I think a touchdown is more likely than a field goal whether you make it or not because touchdowns occur much more then field goals. Therefore, you do better protecting against a touchdown than a field goal. When there is less time in a close game, the ratio between field goals and touchdowns changes significantly. I guess that is why there must be 12 or more minutes left for it to be right to go-for-two. With less time, you shift to kicking and protecting against the field goal and not opting to define your opponent's strategy when he may have only one or two possessions left.

Messages In This Thread

• More Go-for-Two OT
  Joe Russell -- Thursday, 28 October 2010, at 2:32 a.m.
  • Here's the link
    Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 28 October 2010, at 6:08 p.m.
  • More Go-for-Two OT
    Bob Koca -- Thursday, 28 October 2010, at 6:45 p.m.
    • More Go-for-Two OT
      Joe Russell -- Friday, 29 October 2010, at 5:13 a.m.