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OT -- College Football

Posted By: Bill Riles
Date: Sunday, 31 October 2010, at 2:51 p.m.

In Response To: OT -- College Football (Gregg Cattanach)

@Gregg

The ratings are most interesting. Oregon and Auburn are considerably alike -- they score a lot of points and they give up a lot of points. When they play another very good team with, in comparison to their prior opponents, a better offense and a better defense it could be interesting. I do think Oregon is better than Auburn since their offense is not as one-dimensional -- ask Nebraska (similar to Auburn but w/ better defense) about losing to mediocre Texas team (though great, fast defense) when Texas's defense took Taylor Martinez out of the game. Alabama will do the same to Cam Newton.

There are some interesting common opponent comparisons among the top teams. Arizona, who will be approaching the top ten in the BCS today, beat Iowa which may well be the best team in the Big Ten. Who did Arizona lose to, at home? -- Oregon State. Oregon State was soundly pasted by both TCU and Boise State.

Another interesting comparison can be made looking at Air Force -- a very decent team. Air Force lost on the road by 3 to Oklahoma (top ten in BCS today), Air Force lost at home by 5 to Utah (top ten in the BCS today). TCU beat Air Force at home 38-7.

Oregon 439-143 cumulative score in going 8-0. Average score about 55-18.

Auburn 360-219 cumulative score in going 9-0. Average score about 40-24. Three wins by three points against weak teams -- Clemson, Kentucky and Miss. St.

Boise State 334-94 cumulative score in going 7-0. Average score about 48-13.

TCU 365-78 cumulative score in going 9-0. Average score about 41-9. Have given up 16 points cumulative in their last five games.

Oregon, Auburn, TCU all have a game left against top ten, or close, BCS schools. Oregon vs. Arizona, Auburn vs. Alabama, TCU vs. Utah.

In the end I think Oregon, TCU, and Boise State win out with Auburn losing to Alabama. I think TCU passes Boise State, perhaps as early as this week, based on strength of schedule. Boise State beat Virginia Tech early in season at end of the game and they beat Oregon State -- nothing else. TCU beat Oregon State, looks great in the Air Force comparison against other top teams, routed a surprisingly strong Baylor team (~#20 in BCS today), and plays Utah later.

Then the question will become if the BCS moves Alabama past both TCU and Boise State. I don't think they will. They would have to really rout Auburn but then the SEC conference championship game will be against a 2 or 3 loss team and won't help the strength of schedule as much as it might in other years.

I'm seeing TCU vs. Oregon in BCS Championship game.

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