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LSU decision

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Monday, 8 November 2010, at 9:02 p.m.

In Response To: Two Football Questions For Dr. Chuck Bower (Paul Weaver)

4th quarter, 9:51 remains. LSU trails by 1 on Alabama's 26 yardline facing 4th and 1. LSU has 1 TO remaing; AL has 3.

Using NFL average teams, the FG is wrong by ~3% GWC, assuming mostly runs with some passes tossed in to keep the defense in some doubt. Note that LSU has an NFL-quality kicker. For some teams it's even more of an error to try and kick a 44-yarder.

I don't pay a lot of attention to computer rating systems. I suspect a bit of internet research (even Wikipedia) will get you the answers you seek. Search, for example, 'Jeff Sagarin'. (He lives less than 2 miles from me, but I'm not going to go and knock on his door for you. :) I'm pretty sure the season doesn't begin with a blank slate, though.

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