| |
BGonline.org Forums
Did Pittsburgh Really Call Time Out With 2:03 Left?
Posted By: Steve Mellen In Response To: Did Pittsburgh Really Call Time Out With 2:03 Left? (Paul Weaver)
Date: Monday, 15 November 2010, at 10:00 a.m.
By calling time out, the Steelers prevented the Patriots from being in a position to run off 35-40 seconds after the two minute warning, so it actually doesn't make that much difference.
Here's what happened. Starting the sequence in Pittsburgh territory with 2:49 remaining, New England calls two straight running plays to grind the clock. With third down coming up, Pittsburgh calls time out with 2:03 left. New England runs it again on third down and the two-minute warning stops the clock at 1:58. New England then kicks a field goal on fourth down, leaving 1:53 on the clock.
Let's assume Pittsburgh instead does as Paul suggests, and lets the clock tick down to 2:00 on third down. New England now runs the ball and Pittsburgh calls time out at 1:55. New England kicks the field goal and Pittsburgh gets the ball back at 1:50.
So Pittsburgh has burned one time out in either scenario and, amazingly, has come out three seconds ahead by listening to Mike Tomlin instead of Paul Weaver. The savings is not entirely cost-free; by calling time out at 2:03, Pittsburgh gave New England the freedom to try a pass play on third down, since an otherwise costly incompletion would be no big deal because the clock was stopping anyway. If we know New England will be running the ball (probably a safe bet) then calling time out at 2:03 is the slightly superior play.
Can Pittsburgh do better? Well, they start the sequence with two time outs, so let's imagine what happens if they call them both on defense. The first-down play ended at about 2:43; in the real world, Pittsburgh allowed the clock to run down to 2:08 before New England had to run another play. If they call time out at 2:43 after the first-down play, they can call their last time out at 2:37 after the second-down play. But then when New England runs again on third down, the clock will tick all the way to the two-minute warning. Pittsburgh gets the ball back after the field goal at 1:55, but unlike the real-world scenario, now they have no time outs. So paradoxically, the time out at 2:43 that felt like it saved 35 seconds actually saved only 2 seconds!
The key is to look at the situation in terms of plays rather than seconds. If no one calls time out, New England (which starts the sequence at 2:49) will have to run two plays before the two-minute warning. By using one time out, we can make them run three plays before the two-minute warning. But as it turns out, there's not quite enough time remaining for us to force them to run four plays, even if we use both time outs. I'm forced to conclude that Pittsburgh handled the clock pretty much optimally.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.