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Rollout(s)

Posted By: Carlo Melzi
Date: Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 1:58 p.m.

In Response To: Crunch Position Cube Action (Carlo Melzi)

I see that many of you consider this a clear drop. A full 3-ply rollout agrees with you.

	is Player 2 score: 5 pip: 131 11 point match pip: 88 score: 4 is Player 1
XGID=aECBB-------a--c-bbccC----:1:-1:-1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	76,42% (G: 18,78% B: 0,76%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23,58% (G: 3,06% B: 0,03%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	77,29% (G: 18,81% B: 1,24%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	22,71% (G: 3,80% B: 0,05%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0,705
Redouble:	+1,266
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0,965 (-0,035)
Redouble/Take:	+1,059 (+0,059)
Redouble/Drop:	+1,000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
648 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60593785 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0,018 (+0,947...+0,983)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0,026 (+1,033...+1,084)
Double Decision confidence:	100,0%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 9 minutes 20 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

While I have no problem to believe this to be a clear drop against XG 3-ply, I also believe that the position is a take against an opponent that is not able to get maximum advantage from the position.

In order to test my hypothesis, I launched a 1-ply rollout with the following result:

	is Player 2 score: 5 pip: 131 11 point match pip: 88 score: 4 is Player 1
XGID=aECBB-------a--c-bbccC----:1:-1:-1:00:4:5:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	76,12% (G: 17,47% B: 0,94%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23,88% (G: 3,66% B: 0,02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75,38% (G: 15,83% B: 1,30%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24,62% (G: 3,98% B: 0,05%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0,680
Redouble:	+1,147
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0,910 (-0,019)
Redouble/Take:	+0,929
Redouble/Drop:	+1,000 (+0,071)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
903 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 60593785 Moves and cube decisions: 1 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0,020 (+0,890...+0,930)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0,032 (+0,897...+0,961)
Double Decision confidence:	84,2%
Take Decision confidence:	100,0%
Duration: 22,3 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Do you think this approach makes sense? Should I just swallow it and realize that I did a blunder take?

Messages In This Thread

• Crunch Position Cube Action
  Carlo Melzi -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 1:41 p.m.
  • Crunch Position Cube Action
    Christian Munk-Christensen -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 2:10 p.m.
    • Crunch Position Cube Action
      Carlo Melzi -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 5:57 p.m.
      • Crunch Position Cube Action
        Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 6:37 p.m.
        • Crunch Position Cube Action
          Timothy Chow -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 9:25 p.m.
        • Crunch Position Cube Action
          Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 4:46 a.m.
          • Crunch Position Cube Action
            Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 7:41 a.m.
            • Crunch Position Cube Action
              Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 10:14 a.m.
              • Crunch Position Cube Action
                Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 10:32 a.m.
                • Crunch Position Cube Action
                  Christian Munk-Christensen -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 10:42 a.m.
                  • Crunch Position Cube Action
                    Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 10:57 a.m.
                    • Crunch Position Cube Action
                      Christian Munk-Christensen -- Wednesday, 17 November 2010, at 1:55 a.m.
                      • Crunch Position Cube Action
                        Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 17 November 2010, at 7:24 a.m.
                  • 55 checker play rollout
                    Carlo Melzi -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 2:37 p.m.
                    • 55 checker play rollout
                      Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 3:36 p.m.
                    • 55 checker play rollout
                      Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 17 November 2010, at 8:01 a.m.
        • Crunch Position Cube Action
          Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 4:59 a.m.
          • Crunch Position Cube Action
            Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 7:40 a.m.
  • Crunch Position Cube Action
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 2:45 p.m.
  • Crunch Position Cube Action
    ah_clem -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 3:52 p.m.
    • Crunch Position Cube Action
      Carlo Melzi -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 6:00 p.m.
      • Crunch Position Cube Action
        ah_clem -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 8:39 p.m.
  • Crunch Position Cube Action
    Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 15 November 2010, at 5:45 p.m.
  • Rollout(s)
    Carlo Melzi -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 1:58 p.m.
    • Rollout(s)
      ah_clem -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 2:33 p.m.
      • Rollout(s)
        Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 3:21 p.m.
        • Rollout(s)
          ah_clem -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 5:03 p.m.
          • Rollout(s)
            ah_clem -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 8:28 p.m.
            • Rollout(s)
              Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 8:40 p.m.
      • Rollout(s)
        Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 5:25 p.m.
    • Rollout(s)
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 2:59 p.m.