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TOTAL COST (in XG)

Posted By: Fabrice Liardet
Date: Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 11:12 a.m.

In Response To: TOTAL COST (in XG) (misja)

I think that's wrong. The case to consider is the case where B (the most terrible player in the world) resigns at move one, then he gives away only 50%. In your example, in order to be able to give away 100% B has already needed a lot of luck to go from 50% to 100%, so there is a selection bias in favor of lucky suckers.

The trap is that a lucky player can indeed get a negative match winning chance according to rew's measure. But your proposal is not immune to that anyway : a lucky player can blunder twice from 99% to 1% in the same match.

On average the measure proposed by rew is correct, as some clever people here explained to me some time ago. The average of the matches actually won will tend towards the average of the match winning chances thus computed - including negative ones - when the number of matches tends to infinity.

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