BGonline.org Forums

Adjusted match equity

Posted By: Fabrice Liardet
Date: Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 2:52 p.m.

In Response To: Adjusted match equity (Dimitar Draganov)

OK, here is how I did it for Crawford or post-Crawford scores.

Start with the probability of winning a single game (1-point match), say 60% for instance (I know that is a bit extreme, but I want simple figures). The probability for the favorite to win two in a row is 36%, while it is 25% for equal opponents. For three in a row, it is 21.6% instead of 12.5%. Based on that observation, one can get an approximation by interpolating logarithmically to get the "60% favorite" match equity starting from the regular match equity.

Formally, it means that one solves the two equations MET₅₀ = 0.5ⁿ and MET₆₀ = 0.6ⁿ for MET₆₀. The solution is MET₆₀ = MET₅₀^log₂(5/3), where log₂(5/3) ~ 0.737.

For instance, if the favourite trails -7,-1 Crawford the regular MET says 11.6%, and my formula says that his MWC is in fact 0.116^0.737 = 20.44%.

Whether the above can be somehow generalized to other scores and/or rendered easily computable, I don't know.

Messages In This Thread

• Adjusted match equity
  Dimitar Draganov -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 1:30 p.m.
  • Adjusted match equity
    Fabrice Liardet -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 3:34 p.m.
    • Adjusted match equity
      Dimitar Draganov -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 4:01 p.m.
      • Adjusted match equity
        Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 8:55 a.m.
  • Adjusted match equity
    Petter Bengtsson -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 4:45 p.m.
    • Adjusted match equity
      higonefive -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 5:00 p.m.
    • Adjusted match equity
      Gregg Cattanach -- Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 2:02 p.m.
      • Adjusted match equity
        Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 19 November 2010, at 11:16 p.m.
  • Adjusted match equity
    Rich Munitz -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 6:05 p.m.
    • Adjusted match equity
      Dimitar Draganov -- Tuesday, 16 November 2010, at 7:13 p.m.
    • Adjusted match equity
      Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 8:58 a.m.
  • Adjusted match equity
    Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 2:52 p.m.