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Lot's of discussion about this match cube at the club tonight...

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 4:52 p.m.

In Response To: Lot's of discussion about this match cube at the club tonight... (Justin N.)

The leader's 2-cube basic takepoint ATS is around 22%, g values favor the trailer by around 100% to 45%, and the trailer's 4-cube takepoint is approx 18.5%. What kind of gammon chances for both sides here? Blonde has lots of threats on tap - point & fan, hit outside & fan, or hit loose on 5-pt and fan. These add up to around 14/36. They're not all g's of course but they sure are mkt losers. Brunette wins some gammons as well, mainly from a loose hit & hit back sequence. I'll guess 30%/10% g's for the two sides here. These g chances raise the leader's takepoint to around 47.5%. It probably should be a little higher than that since brunette will be able to use his gammon threat or his cube ownership to his advantage, but not both. Maybe add another percent for this reason making it 48.5%. Cube vig figures to be worth less than normal for the leader ATS so I think he needs around 45% cubeless chances to take this.

I don't think he wins close to 45% here so it looks like a big pass to me. He's outboarded, down in the race, and doesn't have an anchor.

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