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TOTAL COST (in XG)

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Friday, 19 November 2010, at 12:15 p.m.

In Response To: TOTAL COST (in XG) (Mislav Kovacic)

when in fact it's Total Cost that tells you that, and also much more accurately.

I agree with the first part, sort of disagree with the second part.

EMG-normalizing, as done in the error rates (ER, PR), means that conceptual errors that you make at any point in the match are weighted more or less equally. This equal weighting means that you get more accurate results from small samples of your matches. Total cost focusses on the errors that you make at important (see Stu Katz's post) points in the match, of which there are few in a small sample, leading to more statistical noise, i.e. inaccuracy.

That said, in the long run EMG-normalizing may be problematic: For example, if you know the $-game opening book 7 moves deep, that will tend to help your ER/PR more than your actual success in BG match play, because you are now an expert at playing the less-than-average important parts of a match (low cube values and both sides have lots of points to go) well. If instead you study to be an expert at DMP situations, your progress will probably be understated by ER/PR compared to your actual increase in match winning chances. I'm not saying that one should study DMP instead of openings, just that looking at ER/PR may give systematically inaccurate feedback.

The measure that reflects your success most accurately in the long run is the difference of your total cost and your opponents'.

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