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TOTAL COST (in XG)

Posted By: eXtreme Gammon
Date: Saturday, 20 November 2010, at 12:50 a.m.

In Response To: TOTAL COST (in XG) (Gregg Cattanach)

Gregg: With this particular math, it is possible to be more than a 100% favorite, (which always freaks some people out.)

I did freak me out too :-). As a result XG used the following formula to show how much a player is favorite:

Favorite = 1/(1+EXP("mwc lost"*4))

That's a standard sigmoid, the 4 factor insure the slope is +1 for "mwc lost"=0

For "mwc lost"=15% it shows the player being 35.4% favorite

For "mwc lost"=30% it shows the player being 23.1% favorite

For "mwc lost"=50% it shows the player being 11.9% favorite

For "mwc lost"=126% it shows the player being 0.6% favorite (I had an opponent who made that much mistake!)

Messages In This Thread

• TOTAL COST (in XG)
  Mislav Kovacic -- Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 7:52 a.m.
  • TOTAL COST (in XG)
    misja -- Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 9:06 a.m.
    • TOTAL COST (in XG)
      Mislav Kovacic -- Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 10:38 a.m.
      • TOTAL COST (in XG)
        Casper van der Tak -- Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 11:07 a.m.
      • TOTAL COST (in XG)
        misja -- Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 11:16 a.m.
      • TOTAL COST (in XG)
        Maik Stiebler -- Friday, 19 November 2010, at 12:15 p.m.
    • TOTAL COST (in XG)
      Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 11:12 a.m.
      • TOTAL COST (in XG)
        misja -- Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 11:34 a.m.
  • TOTAL COST (in XG)
    Fabrice Liardet -- Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 11:02 a.m.
  • TOTAL COST (in XG)
    sonrik -- Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 6:34 p.m.
  • TOTAL COST (in XG)
    Bob Koca -- Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 8:04 p.m.
    • TOTAL COST (in XG)
      Leonardo Jerkovic -- Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 10:58 p.m.
  • TOTAL COST (in XG)
    Stuart Katz -- Thursday, 18 November 2010, at 8:53 p.m.
  • TOTAL COST (in XG)
    Gregg Cattanach -- Friday, 19 November 2010, at 8:14 p.m.
    • TOTAL COST (in XG)
      eXtreme Gammon -- Saturday, 20 November 2010, at 12:50 a.m.
      • TOTAL COST (in XG)
        Leonardo Jerkovic -- Saturday, 20 November 2010, at 1:16 a.m.
        • TOTAL COST (in XG)
          eXtreme Gammon -- Saturday, 20 November 2010, at 1:21 a.m.
          • TOTAL COST (in XG)
            Bob Koca -- Saturday, 20 November 2010, at 3:08 a.m.
          • TOTAL COST (in XG)
            Leonardo Jerkovic -- Saturday, 20 November 2010, at 10:10 a.m.
          • TOTAL COST (in XG)
            Leonardo Jerkovic -- Saturday, 20 November 2010, at 10:10 a.m.