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43D-32 and 64P-43D-32

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 20 November 2010, at 4:56 a.m.

In Response To: 64P 43D 32 to play (dlevy)

160 43D-32 167

160 64P-43D-32 157

The best play in third roll positions can often be determined by what we know of second roll positions.

The best play in the left-hand position, 43D-32, is Z (reverse split, 24/22 13/10). The second best play (-.012) is D (Down, 13/11 13/10). However, it is not even necessary to which of the two plays is better; it is enough to know that Z and D are close.

In the right-hand position, 64P-43D-32, Blue has an inside point (favoring an exchange of hits), he is 10 pips better off in the race, and he is 10 pips worse in a priming battle. All factors enhance Z relative to D. In short, Z must have an even bigger edge over D on the right than the left.

The only remaining question is whether S (Split, 24/21 13/11) might be better than Z. I happen to know for the left-hand position that S is about .050 worse than Z. In the right-hand position, it's easy to imagine that S gains on Z (based on the factors discussed), but very hard to imagine that it makes up .050; after all, they're both splitting plays.

Conclusion: Z is clearly best, and either S or D is second best. I don't think the 𣛩 score (as opposed to money) makes much difference.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• 64P 43D 32 to play
  dlevy -- Saturday, 20 November 2010, at 2:01 a.m.
  • 64P 43D 32 to play
    John O'Hagan -- Saturday, 20 November 2010, at 2:03 a.m.
  • Diagram
    Stick -- Saturday, 20 November 2010, at 2:23 a.m.
    • Diagram
      ah_clem -- Saturday, 20 November 2010, at 1:01 p.m.
  • 43D-32 and 64P-43D-32
    Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 20 November 2010, at 4:56 a.m.
    • 43D-32 and 64P-43D-32
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 20 November 2010, at 7:00 a.m.
    • 43D-32 and 64P-43D-32
      christian munk-christensen -- Saturday, 20 November 2010, at 7:09 a.m.
    • 43D-32 and 64P-43D-32
      dlevy -- Saturday, 20 November 2010, at 3:19 p.m.