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Can anyone explain this?

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Friday, 26 November 2010, at 4:01 a.m.

In Response To: Can anyone explain this? (John O'Hagan)

It may be that some of the other responses are expressing the same thing I'm going to say. I'm not sure.

The profit or loss from doubling is the gain you realize when you lose your market in the next two rolls minus the loss you suffer when you double now and do poorly in the next two rolls so that you would be better if the cube had not moved. (Note that this has absolutely nothing to do with a doubling window. I find the lower end of the doubling window to be useless other than the last roll of the game.) In this position, the market losers at each score produce similar gains. However, the loss on reversals (unfavorable sequences of two rolls) are different.

When you hold the cube and lose at 3a3a you have 24.88% MWC. When you lose holding the cube at 4a5a, you have 42.86% MWC. The latter is a much more attractive prospect and you are much less inclined to give it away by redoubling now. Therefore you are less willing to reship the cube at 4a5a than at 3a3a.

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