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BGonline.org Forums
Can anyone explain this?
Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: Can anyone explain this? (phil simborg)
Date: Friday, 26 November 2010, at 5:23 p.m.
Phil Simborg asked:
how can we determine exactly at what point it is that we should double?
The theoretically correct answer is that you need to consider all 1296 possibilities for your roll and your opponent's roll, and weigh the market losers against the market freezers (not just the number of market losers/freezers but the equity gained/lost by doubling).
Obviously, for a human, this calculation is rarely if ever possible to perform OTB with any precision. However, the principle still stands, that you should think one turn ahead, weighing market losers against market freezers and doubling if you think you'll gain more than you'll lose by doing so. Heuristics such as how close you want to be to the upper or lower limit of your doubling window can be helpful, but it's always good to remember in the back of your mind that you're ultimately trying to do a gain/loss estimate (as always in backgammon).
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