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A Taste

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Friday, 3 December 2010, at 2:53 p.m.

In Response To: A Taste (Stick)

Figuring out winning chances is easy. White will lose with 10/36 rolls (any ace except double aces) and win the rest. That's about 28% losses, 72% wins. Since it's last roll, there's no cube vig. I can calculate the min double point for white, but it has to be less than 72% so I'm not going to bother. It's a clear double.

Using the g11 MET, Black's take point is 29%. That's a dead cube number, but this is a dead cube position. Were the cube live, Black might be able to eke out a take, but here it's a close pass. (If White had a take after fanning, it would be a whole new ballgame)

This position lends itself to exact calculations and it's easy to work out the answers in a few minutes with a calculator and a match equity table. The thing is, I'm not capable of doing it over the board.

Over the board, I'd see the 10/36 figure, know that this is more than 25% and say it's a double/take for money. Then I'd try to apply the match score - a doubled win takes White to Crawford, so Black's takepoint must be a bit higher than for money but I wouldn't be sure how much higher unless I'd memorized takepoints. At that point I'd be flummoxed.

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