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BGonline.org Forums
What is your least amount of luck in a win?
Posted By: Maik Stiebler In Response To: What is your least amount of luck in a win? (Michael Petch)
Date: Saturday, 4 December 2010, at 9:35 a.m.
In my small set of 70 training matches (5-pointers) against XGR, there was one I won while being 0.0061 unlucky (my Elo performance was 1961, won 8-2) and one I lost while being 0.0044 lucky (Elo 2021, lost 5-4).
You mean, a good barometer for what? I do find MWC luck more useful, and I use it for computing luck-adjusted results. That's not possible with EMG luck rates. What I think they tell you (together with the EMG error rate), is an estimate of how many points you would have been leading at the end of the match, if cube values had not been considered for scoring.
Unfortunately, even that doesn't work accurately; for example, gammons and backgammons would be scored according to their actual EMG value instead of 2 or 3, respectively, and the fact that games don't always start at EMG=0.000 and EMG's are sometimes modified severely by double/takes muddies the measure even more.
But sometimes it works: For example, I won my unlucky match against XGR by scoring a single win (on an 8-cube) after losing an undoubled gammon (scored as approximately 2 at the beginning of the match). Cubeless match score: 1-2. The difference of -1 could have been predicted not entirely inaccurately by taking the skill differential (-0.0063) times number of my decisions (50) plus luck rate (-0.0062) times number of rolls (90).
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