| |
BGonline.org Forums
What is your least amount of luck in a win?
Posted By: Michael Petch In Response To: What is your least amount of luck in a win? (Maik Stiebler)
Date: Saturday, 4 December 2010, at 11:27 a.m.
"However, from an emg luck rate tending to 0, you cannot conclude that the dice are random (or high-quality pseudo random). From an average mwc luck tending to 0, you cannot conclude that either, but at least you can say that their un-randomness is not exploited.".
I actually agree with this.
So lets pose a question asked previously. "If a WC player loses 3-4 matches in a row against an advanced player on a particular site, and each time lost with -8 to -11 luck, can you conclude the dice are not random".
I know two people on BGO have used this specific claim to say the site is not random, although if you analyze the actual rolls (Millions of them) the data does seem to be random.
Another claim is that in rated (and non rated) games the matches are rigged to give the person with a lower rating an edge against the stronger opponent by the server manipulating the dice at key moments.
So we come back to the question I really am interested in. Can one create a test to determine what variance in luck (At a match level) between a variety of different skilled players should be, and can that be used to identify a rigged site?
One thing I have personally observed in my own matches is that my EMG luck (In a match) tends to be closer to 0 when I play opponents of equal skill. But when there is a large skill imbalance luck tends to end up in the +8 or higher when the underdog wins. Whether this observation would hold true over thousands of matches, i don't know.
| |
BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.