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What is your least amount of luck in a win?

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Saturday, 4 December 2010, at 12:07 p.m.

In Response To: What is your least amount of luck in a win? (Michael Petch)

I'd certainly use MWC luck to provide evidence that a server is rigged. My null hypothesis would be something like "My average luck against each opponent is 0%MWC". Should be technically easy to reject the hypothesis if the dice are rigged against me.

"If a WC player loses 3-4 matches in a row against an advanced player on a particular site, and each time lost with -8 to -11 luck, can you conclude the dice are not random".

That is very weak evidence, because 4 matches is nothing and

"... my EMG luck (In a match) tends to be closer to 0 when I play opponents of equal skill. But when there is a large skill imbalance luck tends to end up in the +8 or higher when the underdog wins."

should be basically true. I mean, I don't know if +8 or higher is correct, but EMG luck rate should be higher in absolute terms when the underdog wins, just as is the case with MWC luck. I do think that the distribution of EMG luck rate is influenced by some factors beyond skill differential though, more so than that of MWC luck.

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