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Free drop information

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Friday, 10 December 2010, at 9:19 p.m.

In Response To: Free drop information (RolldUpTrips)

As I recall from work I did last December:

At –p–2 (i.e., post-Crawford –1–2): Opening 51 is –.0028 and should be dropped, and opening 52 is –.0002 and can be considered a tie (or bare drop). However, that is based on GnuBG data. This XG 3-ply rollout of 51-d suggests that even 51 could be a take (don't know about 52). Longer and/or higher-ply rollouts are probably needed.

Take with all other opening rolls, and with any reply sequence better than .000.

At –p–4, take all opening rolls, and take any reply sequence less negative than –.008. (If I started a list, I can't find it.) In other words, the deferred option to use the free drop next game (times the chance that there will be a next game) is worth .008.

At –p–6, you can be even more liberal taking; I would guess the breakeven to be around –.013.

In theory, if the trailer is distant enough, it seems to me that you can take any reply sequence except the worst one (31P-54D).

Hope that helps.

Nack

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