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BGonline.org Forums
Situation 2: hate to disappoint
Posted By: Chuck Bower In Response To: Two Zeus questions for Chuck (Gregg Cattanach)
Date: Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 2:51 a.m.
With so little time one the clock and what looks to me to be a close decision, I'm not confident we have all the factors properly weighted to answer this. Some things to consider:
1) Bironas is one of the top long FG kickers in the game (maybe #1). For his career he's 50/63 from 40-49 and a very impressive 15/21 for 50+. He's made a 60-yarder in competition.
2) The defense has options. They can bias against the sideline passes (where receivers can stop the clock by going out-of-bounds), they can bias against the long pass, allowing short (time-wasting) completions.
3) Clock management by the offense is critical. They need to have multiple plays called to avoid the huddle. They need to hurry up to the line-of-scrimmage for the next play. And the QB has to know when to throw it away, trading downs for seconds. He has to avoid short passes unless there's a very good chance the receiver can either make a big gain or a moderate gain and get out-of-bounds quickly. (The receivers need to know when to drop passes if they're not open.)
These items may be obvious to backgammon players. But even if you assume the NFL knows all this (and that is probably giving some teams too much credit) they still must execute.
I'm not at all confident that we have all of these modeled accurately enough to split between these two. I have my doubts anyone knows the answer, but that doesn't stop many (including the TV commentators/announcers) from claiming they do. The hurry-up offense is on our to-do list, but it's going to have to wait for the off-season before there's time to perfect it.
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