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Second Opinion (of original position)

Posted By: Chuck Bower
Date: Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 6:29 p.m.

In Response To: Sample subsequent cubes - Gnubg on 3rd position (Daniel Murphy)

Same conclusion as XG (big double, big take). Note the difference in wins for the two paths which I mentioned elsewhere on this thread. Please keep in mind that as gammon risk/reward changes with cube location, it could be that differences in win chances result from correct play. But it should be a warning flag until it's checked out. Note from Daniel's post that GNU-bg eval is way off on the original position (compared to the rollouts) -- a further indication that the no-double branch RO result could be (quantitatively) off-base.

The score (after 0 games) is: JellyFish 0, Player2 0 (match to 3 points)

Move number 3: Player2 on roll, cube decision?

Pip counts: JellyFish 57, Player2 151
Position ID: /s8BABCzLQhIMg Match ID: cAlgAAAAAAAA

• Player2 doubles

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.2992	(Money: +0.2806)
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.8349
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.1651
3.	No double	+0.6879	-0.1470
Proper cube action:		Double, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Centered 1-cube 0.6634 0.1497 0.0103 - 0.3366 0.1790 0.0271 +0.2992 +0.6879 Standard error 0.0009 0.0022 0.0009 - 0.0009 0.0012 0.0014 0.0048 0.0075 Player JellyFish owns 2-cube 0.6923 0.1573 0.0201 - 0.3077 0.1845 0.0620 +0.9744 +0.8349 Standard error 0.0009 0.0024 0.0012 - 0.0009 0.0014 0.0022 0.0085 0.0083
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
5874 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 875162240 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• A cube action missed by giants
  phil simborg -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 12:33 a.m.
  • A cube action missed by giants
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 6:24 a.m.
  • I disagree with the XG rollout
    David Rockwell -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 6:32 a.m.
    • I disagree with the XG rollout
      neilkaz -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 7:04 a.m.
      • I disagree with the XG rollout
        Stick -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 7:24 a.m.
      • I disagree with the XG rollout
        Rich Munitz -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 4:04 p.m.
        • I disagree with the XG rollout
          neilkaz -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 12:25 a.m.
          • I disagree with the XG rollout
            Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 1:19 a.m.
      • I disagree with the XG rollout
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 8:07 p.m.
    • Prop! *NM*
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 10:46 a.m.
  • Sample subsequent cubes
    David Rockwell -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 4:37 p.m.
    • Sample subsequent cubes
      Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 5:37 p.m.
      • Sample subsequent cubes
        Sam Pottle -- Saturday, 11 December 2010, at 8:32 p.m.
    • Sample subsequent cubes
      neilkaz -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 12:20 a.m.
      • Sample subsequent cubes
        David Rockwell -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 1:07 a.m.
        • Sample subsequent cubes
          neilkaz -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 1:19 a.m.
          • Sample subsequent cubes
            David Rockwell -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 1:35 a.m.
            • Sample subsequent cubes
              neilkaz -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 3:49 a.m.
              • Sample subsequent cubes
                David Rockwell -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 4:18 a.m.
                • Sample subsequent cubes
                  Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 9:22 a.m.
    • Sample subsequent cubes - Gnubg on 3rd position
      Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 6:03 p.m.
      • Second Opinion (of original position)
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 6:29 p.m.
  • A stronger RO for you and a comparison of playing strength
    neilkaz -- Sunday, 12 December 2010, at 3:30 a.m.